As Canadian home sales activity and prices continue their downward trend, many prospective home buyers want to know where the bottom is… and how hard that landing will feel.

Predicting the end to the slide is anyone’s guess, but the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Senior Economist Shaun Cathcart said there’s an “increasing number of data points I’m watching that could suggest (the real estate market) will have a softer landing as opposed to the harder variety.”

Year over year, the average price of a Canadian home sold in July was $629,971, down 5% from $662,924 in July 2021.

Canadian Real Estate Activity

While home sales were once again down from June to July, the declines were smaller than the ones experienced in the previous four months. National home sales fell by 5.3% on a month-over-month basis in July, while the number of newly listed properties also dropped by 5.3%.

“We want this trend to be decelerating, not getting worse. A new development in July was a drop in new listings—same size as the decline in sales and in many of the same markets, and that’s good, too,” Cathcart told viewers in the CREA Monthly Housing Market Report (full video available below).

Readers with a keen eye will once again notice the average price of a home sold in July is down 5%, yet most of the country is reporting gains. How is this even possible? To help you understand more about the statistical phenomenon called Simpson’s Paradox, here’s an explainer. In short, Canada’s largest and most active markets (Toronto and Vancouver, for example) can greatly affect averages.

As for the MLS® Home Price Index—the most accurate tool to gauge a neighbourhood’s home price levels and trends—it edged down 1.7% on a month-over-month basis in July, but was still up 10.9% year-over-year.


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